Mr. Daniyal Hassan

15-MS-IWRM-05

Degree Program

MS - Integrated Water Resources Management

District - Province

Sanghar, Sindh

Email Address

[email protected]

Assessment of Historical and Future Performance of the Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord-1991
  1. Given the pre-and post-accord values of the flows in the Sindh, how the water apportionment accord performed at users’ satisfaction and reservoirs level?
  2. What new supply and demand management strategies will be needed to achieve sustainable allocation under the Accord?

Supervisor Name: Ms. Rakhshinda Bano, Assistant Professor, USPCAS-W, MUET, Jamshoro

Co-Supervisor Name: Dr. Kamran Ansari, Professor, USPCAS-W, MUET, Jamshoro

The Indus River Basin is the fourth largest irrigation system in the world, contributing 25% of the gross domestic product and 90% of food production in Pakistan. Numerous water users (e.g., rural, urban, subsistence and commercial irrigated agriculture) rely on flows from the Indus to support their lives and livelihoods in this water-stressed country. The Water Apportionment Accord (WAA) of Pakistan was instituted in 1991 to allocate Indus River water among Pakistan’s provinces. The WAA has been a historical point of conflict, and in the future with rising population, growing demands, and climate change, water shortages may increase in magnitude and frequency, leading to increased and intensified conflicts. Past studies on WAA have investigated impacts from climate changes, economy, and allocations. This thesis assesses the historical and future performance of the WAA in the context of supply and demand changes.

Historical flow data and a calibrated Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model of the Lower Indus River were used to investigate downstream demand, and adaptation solutions. The results elucidated the effect of the accord and water management solutions on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of three barrages (Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri). During past 46 years, at Guddu Barrage, the system remained reliable for 25 years. In Sukkur and Kotri Barrages, the system reliability remained satisfactory for only 16 and 14 years, respectively. During the post-accord period, the system was highly vulnerable, and the expected reliability and resilience were not achieved. The future demands were estimated using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system. The various scenarios: reduction in Agricultural Water Demands (Drip and Sprinkler) and the lining of canals to avoid losses and water theft were introduced to compare the baseline year 2015 and the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of the three barrages managing the Lower Indus River in the future.